Publications

Recent unpublished work

Ecological niche modeling reveals habitat differentiation and climatic vulnerability in two imperiled, sympatric southern Appalachian carnivorous plants [preprint]
Change, N.J., Eserman, L., Carmichael, A., Smith, A.B., Loy, X., Coffey, E.E.D., and Ojascastro, J.

Prioritization of areas for conservation of oaks (Fagaceae: Quercus) across their global biodiversity hotspot based on richness, endemism, and introgression
Loza, M.I., Althaus, K., Smith, A.B., Cannon, C.H., Valencia-A., S., and Alvarez-Clare, S.

Ten simple rules for mentoring and being mentored while neurodiverse
Smith, A.B., Adams, E.G., Abercrombie, E., Bibi, N., Bottini, C.L.J., Brown, A.J., Cavalieri, C.N., Clauser, A.L., Duguid, M.C., Fowler-Finn, K., Hutchen, J., Jardim, V.L., Rodriguez, C.S., Swab, R.M. and Varghese, S.

fasterRaster: GIS in R using GRASS for large rasters and vectors [preprint]
Smith, A.B.

Practitioners’ perceptions of biodiversity-relevant criteria in solar suitability analyses [preprint]
Condon, D., Levin, M., Smith, A.B., Morelli, T.L., Krasner, N.Z., Forester, E., Holmes, C., Narwold, B.P., Bateman, B.L., Kalies, E.L., Wu, G.C., Gade, M.R., Keys, R., Robinson, F., and Hernandez, R.R.

Contrasting predictions from trailing-edge range dynamics and the theory of island biogeography: Climate drives patterns
Westover, M.L., Beever, E.A., Smith, A.B., Gerraty, F.D., Billman, P.D., and Smith, F.A.

Peer-reviewed publications

Pervasive but lagged responses in the composition of small mammal communities to a century of climate change [preprint]
Abercrombie, E., Myers, J., Usdin*, R.L., and Smith, A.B.
* Undergraduate researcher

Herbarium specimens reveal regional patterns of tallgrass prairie invasion and changing species abundance across 130 years [preprint | article]
Austin, M.W., Kaul, A.D., Smith, A.B., Rothendler, M., and Primack, R.B. In press.

Informal research networks of botanical gardens [open access]
Primack, R.B., Austin, M.W., Corlett, R.T., Panchen, Z.A., Gröger, A., Fu, Y.H., Nordt, B., Parolly, G., Lee, S., Rauschkolb, R., Römermann, C., Träger, S., Umazekabiri, R., Wirth, C., Kim, H., Son, S., Rosche, C., Brant, R.A., Riehn, J.K., Smith, A.B., McCormack, M.L., Nikitin, T., Reidy, B.C., Rollinson, C.R., Shearer, K., Iwanycki Ahlstrand, N., Jung, M., Kleissenberg, N., Lautenschläger, T., Shah, M.A. 2025. BGjournal 22:10-14.

Bibliographic synthesis of biodiversity-relevant criteria for solar energy siting [open access]
Levin, M., Condon, D., Krasner, N.Z., Forester, E., Holmes, C.C., Bateman, B.L., Delach, A., Ennen, J.R., Kalies, E.L., Kays, R., Lovich, J.E., Smith, A.B., Wu, G.C., and Hernandez, R.R. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews 223:116026.

The next stage of biodiversity informatics: Community-driven synthesis and integration of biodiversity databases [open access]
Feng, X., Smith, A.B., Boyle, B., Chen, X., Enquist, B.J., Gallagher, R., Hammock, J., Ho, J.C., Lien, A.M., Maitner, B., Sokol, E.R., Soltis, P., Wenk, E.H., Willoughby, A., and Park, D.S. BioScience in press.

Expanding barriers: Impassable gaps interior to distribution of an isolated mountain-dwelling species [open access]
Beever, E.A., Smith, A.B., Wright, D. Rickman, T., Gerraty, F.A., Stewart, J.A.E., Gill, A., Klinger, K., and Robinson, M.  2025. Ecosphere 16:e70223.

Practitioners’ perceived risks to biodiversity from renewable energy expansion through 2050 [open access]
Condon, D., Scott, T.A., Smith, A.B., Morelli, T.L., Ashraf, U., Mojica, A., Chittanuru, H., Luu, R., Bear, R., and Hernandez, R.R. 2025. Humanities and Social Sciences Communication 12:263.

Combining past and contemporary species occurrences with ordinal species distribution modeling to investigate responses to climate change [open access | issue cover]
Beever, E.A., Westover, M., Smith, A.B., Gerraty, F., Billman, P., and Smith, F. 2025. Ecography 2025:e07382.

Achieving higher standards in species distribution modeling by leveraging the diversity of available software [open access | eco:tone pod:cast]
Kass, J.M., Smith, A.B., Warren, D.L., Vignali, S., Schmitt, S., Aiello-Lammens, M.E., de Andrade, A.F.A., Arlé, E., Barbosa, A.M., Broennimann, O., Cobos, M.E., Guéguen, M., Guisan, A., Merow, C., Naimi, B., Nenzén, H., Nobis, M.P., Ondo, I., Osorio-Olvera, L., Owens, H.L., Pinilla-Buitrago, G., Robertson, M., Sánchez-Tapia, A., Thuiller, W., Valavi R., Velazco, S.J.E., Zizka, A., and Zurrell, D. 2025. Ecography 2025:07346.

Climate-smart siting for renewable energy expansion [open access | eco:tone pod:cast]
Ashraf, U., Smith, A.B., Morelli, T.L., and Hernandez, R.R. 2024. iScience 27:110666.

Climate change increases flowering duration, driving phenological reassembly and elevated co-flowering richness [article]
Austin, M.W., Smith, A.B., Olsen, K.M., Hoch, P.C., Krakos, K.N., Schmocker, S.P., and Miller-Struttmann, N.E. 2024. New Phytologist 243:2486-2500.

Integrating genomic data and simulations to evaluate alternative species distribution models and improve confidence in predictions of glacial refugia and future responses to climate change [open access | eco:tone pod:cast]
Naughtin, S., Castilla, A.R., Smith, A.B., Strand, A.E., Dawson, A., Hoban, S., Abhainn, E.A., Romero-Severson, J., and Robinson, J.D. 2025. Ecography 2025:e07196.

Aligning renewable energy expansion with climate-driven range shifts [article & correction | summary]
Ashraf, U., Morelli, T.L., Smith, A.B., and Hernandez, R.R. 2024. Nature Climate Change 24:242-246.

Integrative demographic modeling reduces uncertainty in estimated rates of species’ historical range shifts [open access | eco:tone pod:cast]
Castilla A.R., A. Brown, S. Hoban, E.A. Abhainn, J.D. Robinson, J. Romero-Severson, A.B. Smith, A.E. Strand, J.R. Tipton, and A. Dawson. 2024. Journal of Biogeography 51:325-336.

Beyond climate? Factors determining fruiting and flowering phenology across a genus over 117 years [open access]
Bartlett*, K., Austin, M.A., Beck, J., Zanne†, A., and Smith†, A.B. 2023.  American Journal of Botany 110:e16188. * Undergraduate author. † Co-senior authors.

Modeling the rarest of the rare: A comparison between multi-species distribution models, ensembles of small models, and single-species models at extremely low sample sizes [open access | eco:tone pod:cast]
Erickson, K.D. and Smith, A.B.  2023. Ecography 2023:e06500.

  • Among top 10 most cited works published in Ecography in 2023.

Geographic and taxonomic variation in adaptive capacity among mountain-dwelling small mammals: implications for conservation status and actions [open access]
Beever, E.A., Wilkening, J.L., Billman, P., Thurman, L., Ernest, K., Wright, D., Gill, A, Craighead, A., Helmstetter, N.A., Svancara, L.K., Camp, M.J., Bhattacharyya, S., Fitzgerald, J., Hirose, J.M.R., Westover, M., Gerraty, F., Klingler, K., Schmidt, D.A., Ryals, D.,. Brown, R., Clark, S., Clayton, N. Collins, G., Cutting, K., Doak, D., Epps, C.W., Foley, J., French, J. Hayes, C.L., Mills, Z., Moyer-Horner, L., Nichols, L., Orlofsky, K., Peacock, M., Penzel, N. Peterson, J., Ramsay, N., Rickman, T., Robinson, M., Robison, H. Rowe, K., Rowe, K., Russello, M., Smith, A.B., Stewart, J.E.A.,  Thompson, W., Thorne, J.H., Watterhouse, M., Weber, S., and Wilson, K. 2023. Biological Conservation 282:109942.

Including imprecisely georeferenced specimens improves accuracy of species distribution models and estimates of niche breadth [article | open access pre-print]
Smith, A.B., Murphy, S.J., Henderson, D., and Erickson, K.D. 2023. Global Ecology and Biogeography 32:342-255.

  • Among top 10 most cited works published in Global Ecology & Biogeography in 2023.

Climate change is associated with increased allocation to potential outcrossing in a common mixed mating species [article]
Austin, M.A., Cole*, P., Olsen, K., and Smith, A.B.  2022.  American Journal of Botany 109:1085-1096. * Undergraduate author.

Reciprocal gardens as gold standard to detect local adaptation in grassland species: New opportunities moving into the 21st century [open access]
Johnson, L., Galliart, M., Alsdurf, J., Maricle, B.R., Baer, S.G., Bello, N.M., Gibson, D.J., and Smith, A.B. 2022. Journal of Ecology 110:1054-1071.

What can community ecology learn from species distribution models? [open access | eco:tone pod:cast]
Murphy, S.J. and Smith, A.B. 2021. Ecosphere 12:e03864.

  • One of Ecosphere’s most downloaded papers in the 12 months after publication.

Accounting for imperfect detection in data from museums and herbaria when modeling species distributions: Combining and contrasting data-level versus model-level bias correction [open access | eco:tone pod:cast]
Erickson, K.D. and Smith, A.B.  2021. Ecography 44:1341-1352.

The role of land use and land cover change in climate change vulnerability assessments of biodiversity: A systematic review [open access]
Santos*, M.J., Smith*, A.B., Dekker, S.C., Eppinga, M.B., Leitão, P.J., Moreno-Mateo, D., Morueta-Holme, N., and Ruggieri, M.  2021. Landscape Ecology 36:3367-3382. * Equal contribution.

The phylogeographic history of a range disjunction in eastern North America: the role of post-glacial expansion into newly suitable habitat [article]
Mohn, R.A., Oleas, N.H., Smith, A.B., Swift, J.F., Yatskievych, G., and Edwards, C. 2021. American Journal of Botany 108:1042-1057.

  • Highlighted as a noteworthy article by American Journal of Botany (doi: 10.1002/ajb2.1690)

Testing the ability of species distribution models to infer variable importance [open access]
Smith, A.B., and Santos, M.J.  2020. Ecography 43:1801-1813.

The fate of Madagascar’s rainforest habitat [article]
Morelli*, T.L., Smith*, A.B., Mancini, A.N., Balko, E.A., Borgerson, C., Dolch, R., Farris, Z., Federman, S., Golden, C.D., Holmes, S.M., Irwin, M., Jacobs, R.L., Johnson, S., King, T., Lehman, S.M., Louis Jr., E.E., Murphy, A., Randriahaingo, H.N.T., Randrianarimanana, H.L.Lucien, Ratsimbazafy, J., Razafindratsima, O.H., Baden, A.L. 2020. Nature Climate Change 10:89-96. * Equal contribution.

Inference of biogeographic history by formally integrating distinct lines of evidence: Genetic, environmental niche, and fossil [open access]
Hoban, S., Dawson, A. Robinson, J., Smith, A.B., Strand, A. 2019. Ecography 42:1991-2011.

  • Runner-up article for Ecography’s annual E4 Award.

Alternatives to genetic affinity as a context for within-species response to climate [article]
Smith, A.B., Beever, E.A., Kessler, A.E., Johnston, A.N., Ray, C., Epps, C.W., Lanier, H.C., Klinger, R.C., Rodhouse, T.J., Varner, J., Perrine, J., Seglund, A., Hall, E., Galbreath, K., Anderson, C., Billman, P., Blatz, G., Brewer, J., Vardaro, J.C., Chalfoun, A.D., Collins, G., Craighead, A., Curlis, C., Daly, C., Doak, D.F., East, M., Edwards, M., Erb, L., Ernest, K.A., Fauver, B., Foresman, K., Goehring, K., Hagar, J., Hayes, C.L., Henry, P., Hersey, K., Hilty, S.L., Jacobson, J., Jeffress, M.R., Manning, T.E., Masching, A., Maxwell, B., McCollough, R., McFarland, C., Miskow, E., Morelli, T,L., Moyer-Horner, L., Mueller, M., Nugent, M., Pratt, B., Rasmussen-Flores, M., Rickman, T.H., Robison, H., Rodriguez, A., Rowe, K.M.C., Rowe, K.C., Russello, M.A., Saab, V., Schmidt, A., Stewart, J.A.E., Stuart, J.N., Svancara, L.K., Thompson, W., Timmins, J., Treinish, G., Waterhouse, M.D., Westover, M.K., Wilkening, J., and Yandow, L.  2019.  Nature Climate Change 9:787-794.

  • Cover story for Nature Climate Change Volume 9 Issue 10.
  • Highlighted in editorial feature by Goldfather, M.F. 2019.  Ecoregion shapes the range response. Nature Climate Change 9:730-731.
  • Shortlisted for The Wildlife Society’s Wildlife Publication Awards 2020.
  • Covered by popular science websites including PBS NOVA, SciGlow, The Scientist, and PHYS.ORG.

Niche estimation above and below the species level [article]
Smith, A.B., Godsoe, W., Rodríguez-Sánchez, F., Wang, H-H., and Warren, D. 2019. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 34:260-273.

  • Reviewed by Faculty of 1000.

Local adaptation, genetic divergence, and experimental natural selection in a foundation grass across the US Great Plains’ climate gradient [article]
Galliart, M., Bello, N., Knapp, M., Poland, J., St. Amand, P., Baer, S., Maricle, B., Smith, A.B., and Johnson, L.J.  2019.  Global Change Biology 25:850-868.

Conservation status and threat assessments for North American crop wild relatives [chapter]
Frances, A., Smith, A.B., and Khoury, C. 2018.  Pp. 189-208 in Greene S., Williams K., Khoury C., Kantar M., Marek L. (eds.) North American Crop Wild Relatives: Conservation and Use, Volume 1. (Springer, New York).

Up-scaling biodiversity: Estimating the species-area relationship from small samples [open access]
Kunin, W.E., Harte, J., He, Fangliang, Hui, C., Jobe, R.T., Ostling, A., Polce, C., Šizling, A., Smith, A.B., Smith, Krister, Smart, S.M., Storch, D., Tjørve, E., Ugland, K-I., Ulrich, W., and Varma, V.  2018.  Ecological Monographs 88:170-187.

The relative influence of change in habitat and climate on elevation range limits in small mammals in Yosemite National Park, California, U.S.A. [open access]
Santos, M.J., Smith, A.B., Thorne, J.H., and Moritz, C.  2017.  Climate Change Responses 4:7.

The global wildlife footprint: linking biodiversity loss to economic consumption [open access]
Kitzes, J., Berlow, E., Conlisk, E., Erb, K., Ihara, K., Martinez, N., Newman, E., Plutzar, C., Smith, A.B., and Harte, J.  2016.  Conservation Letters 10:531-538.

Phenotypic distribution models corroborate species distribution models: A shift in the role and prevalence of a dominant prairie grass in response to climate change [article]
Smith, A.B., Alsdurf, J., Knapp, M. and Johnson, L.C.  2017.  Global Change Biology 23:4365-4375.

A systematic assessment of threats affecting the rare plants of the United States [article]
Hernández-Yáñez, H., Kos, J.T., Bast, M.D., Griggs, J.L., Hage, P.A., Killian, A., Whitmore, M.B., Loza, M. L., Smith, A.B.  2016.  Biological Conservation 203:260-267.

Life at the top: Long-term demography, microclimatic refugia, and responses to climate change for a high-elevation southern Appalachian endemic plant [article]
Ulrey, C., Quiantana-Ascencio, P.F., Kauffman, G., Smith, A.B., and Menges, E.S.  2016.  Biological Conservation 200:80-92.

Shifting targets: Spatial priorities for ex situ plant conservation depend on interactions between current threats, climate change, and uncertainty [article]
Smith, A.B., Long, Q.G., and Albrecht, M.A.  2016.  Biodiversity & Conservation 25:905-922.

Delineating probabilistic species pools in ecology and biogeography [open access]
Karger, D.N., Cord, A.F., Kessler, M., Kreft, H., Kühn, I., Pompe, S., Sandel, B., Cabral, J.S., Smith, A.B., Svenning, J-C., Tuomisto, H., Weigelt, P., and Wesche, K.  2016.  Global Ecology & Biogeography 25:489-501.

Evaluation of species distribution models by resampling of sites surveyed a century ago by Joseph Grinnell [afree to read]
Smith, A.B., M.J. Santos, M.S. Koo, K.C. Rowe, K.M.C. Rowe, J.L. Patton, S. Beissinger, and C. Moritz.  2013. Ecography 36:1017-1031.

On evaluating species distribution models with random background sites in place of absences when test presences disproportionately sample suitable habitat [open access]
Smith, A.B.  2013. Diversity & Distributions 19:867-872.

The relative influence of temperature, moisture, and their interaction on range limits of mammals over the past century [article]
Smith, A.B.  2013.  Global Ecology & Biogeography 22:334-343.

Characterizing scale-dependent community assembly using the functional-diversity–area relationship [article]
Smith, A.B., B. Sandel, N. Kraft, and S. Carey.  2013.  Ecology 94:2392-2402.

Anthropogenic refugia ameliorate the severe climate-correlated decline of a montane mammal along its trailing edge [open access]
Morelli, T.L., A.B. Smith, C. Kastely, I. Mastroserio, C. Moritz, and S. Beissinger.  2012.  Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 279:4279-4286.

  • Covered by: Science, Conservation Magazine, Science Daily, Grist, and Futurity.

Approaching a state-shift in Earth’s biosphere [article]
Barnosky, A.D, E.A. Hadly, J. Bascompte, E.L. Berlow, J.H. Brown, M. Fortelius, W.M. Getz, J. Harte, A. Hastings, P.A. Marquet, N.D. Martinez, A. Mooers, P. Roopnarine, G. Vermeij, J.W. Williams, R. Gillespie, J. Kitzes, C. Marshall, N. Matzke, D.P. Mindell, E. Revilla, A.B. Smith.  2012.  Nature 486:52-58.

  • Altmetric: Top 1% of articles of the same age (as of December 2020).
  • Served as basis for Scientific Consensus on Maintaining Humanity’s Life Support Systems in the 21st Century, a policy statement signed by >3400 scientists, presented to the US White House Staff, Secretary of State John Kerry, President Xi Jinping (China), Governor Ichiro Matsui (Osaka, Japan), Energy & Climate Change Minister Gregory Barker, (United Kingdom), Governor Eruviel Avila (Mexico), Right Honourable Datuk Seri Panglima Musa Haji Aman (Minister of Sabah, Malaysia), and others.
  • Served as basis of policy brief requested by Governor Jerry Brown (California).  Served as supporting document for MOU on climate change between China’s National Development and Reform Commission and California.
  • Covered widely in the national and international press, including The New York Times, BBC World News, Los Angeles Times, WIRED, and Bill Moyers; critiqued in Al Jazeera op-ed.
  • Subject of documentary Demain (released as Tomorrow in English) by Mélanie Laurent and Cyril Dion, shown in public theaters and UNFCCC COP21, UNESCO, and other diplomatic venues.
  • Reviewed by Faculty of 1000.
  • Used as basis for Consortium for Mathematics’ 2013 Contest in Modeling.

Caution with curves: Caveats for using the species-area relationship in conservation [article]
Smith, A.B.  2010.  Biological Conservation 143:555-564.

Biodiversity scales from plots to biomes with a universal species-area curve [article]
Harte, J., A.B. Smith, and D. Storch.  2009.  Ecology Letters 12:798-797.

Scale as a lurking factor: Incorporating scale-dependence in experimental ecology [article]
Sandel, B. and A.B. Smith. 2009. Oikos 118:1284-1291.

Maximum entropy and the state variable approach to macroecology [article]
Harte, J., Z.T. Zillo, E. Conlisk, and A.B. Smith.  2008.    Ecology 89:2700-2711.

  • Reviewed by Faculty of 1000 (two recommendations).

The debt of nations and the distribution of ecological impacts from human activities [article]
Srinivasan, U.T., S.P. Carey, E. Hallstein, P.A.T. Higgins, A.C. Kerr, L.E. Koteen, A.B. Smith, R. Watson, J. Harte, and R.B. Norgaard.  2008.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 105:1768-1773.

  • Covered by Nature, The Guardian, and Monga Bay.

A theory of spatial structure in ecological communities at multiple spatial scales [article]
Harte, J., E. Conlisk, A. Ostling, J.L. Green, A.B. Smith.  2005.  Ecological Monographs 75:179-197.

Should we expect population thresholds for wildlife disease? [article]
Lloyd-Smith, J.O., P.C. Cross, C.J. Briggs, M. Daugherty, W.M. Getz, J. Latto, M.S. Sanchez, A.B. Smith, and A. Swei.  2005.  Trends in Ecology & Evolution 20:511-519.