Publications

Recent unpublished work

Climate-smart siting for renewable energy expansion
Ashraf, U., Smith, A.B., Morelli, T.L., and Hernandez, R.R.

Experts’ perceived risks to biodiversity from renewable energy expansion through 2050
Condon, D., Scott, T.A., Smith, A.B., Morelli, T.L., Ashraf, U., Mojica, A., Chittanuru, H., Luu, R., Bear, R., and Hernandez, R.R.

Integrating genomic data and simulations to evaluate alternative species distribution models and improve confidence in predictions of glacial refugia and future responses to climate change
Naughtin, S., Castilla, A.R., Smith, A.B., Strand, A.E., Dawson, A., Hoban, S., Abhainn, E.A., Romero-Severson, J., and Robinson, J.D.

Ordinal species distribution modeling better informs investigation of factors governing species distribution than does binary modeling
Beever, E.A., Westover, M., Smith, A.B., Gerraty, F., Bilman, P., and Smith, F.

Making use of the expanding software for species distribution modeling to diversify workflows and follow best practices
Kass, J.M., Smith, A.B., Warren, D.L., Vignali, S., Schmitt, S., Aiello-Lammens, M.E., de Andrade, A.F.A., Arlé, E., Barbosa, A.M., Broennimann, O., Cobos, M.E., Guéguen, M., Guisan, A., Merow, C., Naimi, B., Nenzén, H., Nobis, M.P., Ondo, I., Osorio-Olvera, L., Owens, H.L., Pinilla-Buitrago, G., Robertson, M., Sánchez-Tapia, A., Thuiller, W., Valavi R., Velazco, S.J.E., Zizka, A., and Zurrell, D.

Climate change increases flowering duration, driving phenological reassembly and elevated co-flowering richness
Austin, M.W., Smith, A.B., Olsen, K.M., Hoch, P.C., Krakos, K.N., Schmocker, S.P., and Miller-Struttmann, N.E.

Pervasive but lagged responses in the composition of small mammal communities to a century of climate change
Abercrombie, E., Myers, J., and Smith, A.B.

Ten simple rules for inclusive scientific workshops
Jensen-Ryan, D., Sadler, D., Castillo, A., Dawson, A.E., Hoban, S., Robinson, J.D., Smith, A.B., and Strand, A.

Peer-reviewed publications

Aligning renewable energy expansion with climate-driven range shifts [article | summary]
Ashraf, U., Morelli, T.L., Smith, A.B., and Hernandez, R.R. 2024. Nature Climate Change 24:242-246.

Integrative demographic modeling reduces uncertainty in estimated rates of species’ historical range shifts [open access]
Castilla A.R., A. Brown, S. Hoban, E.A. Abhainn, J.D. Robinson, J. Romero-Severson, A.B. Smith, A.E. Strand, J.R. Tipton, and A. Dawson.  2024. Journal of Biogeography 51:325-336.

Beyond climate? Factors determining fruiting and flowering phenology across a genus over 117 years [open access]
Bartlett*
, K., Austin, M.A., Beck, J., Zanne, A., and Smith, A.B. 2023.  American Journal of Botany 110:e16188. * Undergraduate author. Co-senior authors.

Modeling the rarest of the rare: A comparison between multi-species distribution models, ensembles of small models, and single-species models at extremely low sample sizes [open access]
Erickson, K.D. and Smith, A.B.  2023. Ecography 2023:e06500.

Geographic and taxonomic variation in adaptive capacity among mountain-dwelling small mammals: implications for conservation status and actions [open access]
Beever, E.A., Wilkening, J.L., Billman, P., Thurman, L., Ernest, K., Wright, D., Gill, A, Craighead, A., Helmstetter, N.A., Svancara, L.K., Camp, M.J., Bhattacharyya, S., Fitzgerald, J., Hirose, J.M.R., Westover, M., Gerraty, F., Klingler, K., Schmidt, D.A., Ryals, D.,. Brown, R., Clark, S., Clayton, N. Collins, G., Cutting, K., Doak, D., Epps, C.W., Foley, J., French, J. Hayes, C.L., Mills, Z., Moyer-Horner, L., Nichols, L., Orlofsky, K., Peacock, M., Penzel, N. Peterson, J., Ramsay, N., Rickman, T., Robinson, M., Robison, H. Rowe, K., Rowe, K., Russello, M., Smith, A.B., Stewart, J.E.A.,  Thompson, W., Thorne, J.H., Watterhouse, M., Weber, S., and Wilson, K. 2023. Biological Conservation 282:109942.

Including imprecisely georeferenced specimens improves accuracy of species distribution models and estimates of niche breadth [article | open access pre-print]
Smith, A.B., Murphy, S.J., Henderson, D., and Erickson, K.D. 2023. Global Ecology and Biogeography 32:342-255.

Climate change is associated with increased allocation to potential outcrossing in a common mixed mating species [article]
Austin, M.A., Cole*, P., Olsen, K., and Smith, A.B.  2022.  American Journal of Botany 109:1085-1096. * Undergraduate author.

Reciprocal gardens as gold standard to detect local adaptation in grassland species: New opportunities moving into the 21st century [open access]
Johnson, L., Galliart, M., Alsdurf, J., Maricle, B.R., Baer, S.G., Bello, N.M., Gibson, D.J., and Smith, A.B. 2022. Journal of Ecology 110:1054-1071.

What can community ecology learn from species distribution models? [open access]
Murphy, S.J. and Smith, A.B. 2021. Ecosphere 12:e03864.

  • One of Ecosphere’s most downloaded papers in the 12 months after publication.

Accounting for imperfect detection in data from museums and herbaria when modeling species distributions: Combining and contrasting data-level versus model-level bias correction [open access]
Erickson, K.D. and Smith, A.B.  2021. Ecography 44:1341-1352.

The role of land use and land cover change in climate change vulnerability assessments of biodiversity: A systematic review [open access]
Santos*, M.J., Smith*, A.B., Dekker, S.C., Eppinga, M.B., Leitão, P.J., Moreno-Mateo, D., Morueta-Holme, N., and Ruggieri, M.  2021. Landscape Ecology 36:3367-3382. * Equal contribution.

The phylogeographic history of a range disjunction in eastern North America: the role of post-glacial expansion into newly suitable habitat [article]
Mohn, R.A., Oleas, N.H., Smith, A.B., Swift, J.F., Yatskievych, G., and Edwards, C. 2021. American Journal of Botany 108:1042-1057.

  • Highlighted as a noteworthy article by American Journal of Botany (doi: 10.1002/ajb2.1690)

Testing the ability of species distribution models to infer variable importance [open access]
Smith, A.B., and Santos, M.J.  2020. Ecography 43:1801-1813.

The fate of Madagascar’s rainforest habitat [article]
Morelli*, T.L., Smith*, A.B., Mancini, A.N., Balko, E.A., Borgerson, C., Dolch, R., Farris, Z., Federman, S., Golden, C.D., Holmes, S.M., Irwin, M., Jacobs, R.L., Johnson, S., King, T., Lehman, S.M., Louis Jr., E.E., Murphy, A., Randriahaingo, H.N.T., Randrianarimanana, H.L.Lucien, Ratsimbazafy, J., Razafindratsima, O.H., Baden, A.L. 2020. Nature Climate Change 10:89-96. * Equal contribution.

Inference of biogeographic history by formally integrating distinct lines of evidence: Genetic, environmental niche, and fossil [open access]
Hoban, S., Dawson, A. Robinson, J., Smith, A.B., Strand, A. 2019. Ecography 42:1991-2011.

  • Runner-up article for Ecography’sannualE4 Award.

Alternatives to genetic affinity as a context for within-species response to climate [article]
Smith, A.B., Beever, E.A., Kessler, A.E., Johnston, A.N., Ray, C., Epps, C.W., Lanier, H.C., Klinger, R.C., Rodhouse, T.J., Varner, J., Perrine, J., Seglund, A., Hall, E., Galbreath, K., Anderson, C., Billman, P., Blatz, G., Brewer, J., Vardaro, J.C., Chalfoun, A.D., Collins, G., Craighead, A., Curlis, C., Daly, C., Doak, D.F., East, M., Edwards, M., Erb, L., Ernest, K.A., Fauver, B., Foresman, K., Goehring, K., Hagar, J., Hayes, C.L., Henry, P., Hersey, K., Hilty, S.L., Jacobson, J., Jeffress, M.R., Manning, T.E., Masching, A., Maxwell, B., McCollough, R., McFarland, C., Miskow, E., Morelli, T,L., Moyer-Horner, L., Mueller, M., Nugent, M., Pratt, B., Rasmussen-Flores, M., Rickman, T.H., Robison, H., Rodriguez, A., Rowe, K.M.C., Rowe, K.C., Russello, M.A., Saab, V., Schmidt, A., Stewart, J.A.E., Stuart, J.N., Svancara, L.K., Thompson, W., Timmins, J., Treinish, G., Waterhouse, M.D., Westover, M.K., Wilkening, J., and Yandow, L.  2019.  Nature Climate Change 9:787-794.

  • Cover story for Nature Climate Change Volume 9 Issue 10.
  • Highlighted in editorial feature by Goldfather, M.F. 2019.  Ecoregion shapes the range response. Nature Climate Change 9:730-731.
  • Shortlisted for The Wildlife Society’s Wildlife Publication Awards 2020.
  • Covered by popular science websites including PBS NOVA, SciGlow, The Scientist, and PHYS.ORG.

Niche estimation above and below the species level [article]
Smith, A.B., Godsoe, W., Rodríguez-Sánchez, F., Wang, H-H., and Warren, D. 2019. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 34:260-273.

  • Reviewed by Faculty of 1000.

Local adaptation, genetic divergence, and experimental natural selection in a foundation grass across the US Great Plains’ climate gradient [article]
Galliart, M., Bello, N., Knapp, M., Poland, J., St. Amand, P., Baer, S., Maricle, B., Smith, A.B., and Johnson, L.J.  2019.  Global Change Biology 25:850-868.

Conservation status and threat assessments for North American crop wild relatives [chapter]
Frances, A., Smith, A.B., and Khoury, C. 2018.  Pp. 189-208 in Greene S., Williams K., Khoury C., Kantar M., Marek L. (eds.) North American Crop Wild Relatives: Conservation and Use, Volume 1. (Springer, New York).

Up-scaling biodiversity: Estimating the species-area relationship from small samples [open access]
Kunin, W.E., Harte, J., He, Fangliang, Hui, C., Jobe, R.T., Ostling, A., Polce, C., Šizling, A., Smith, A.B., Smith, Krister, Smart, S.M., Storch, D., Tjørve, E., Ugland, K-I., Ulrich, W., and Varma, V.  2018.  Ecological Monographs 88:170-187.

The relative influence of change in habitat and climate on elevation range limits in small mammals in Yosemite National Park, California, U.S.A. [open access]
Santos, M.J., Smith, A.B., Thorne, J.H., and Moritz, C.  2017.  Climate Change Responses 4:7.

The global wildlife footprint: linking biodiversity loss to economic consumption [open access]
Kitzes, J., Berlow, E., Conlisk, E., Erb, K., Ihara, K., Martinez, N., Newman, E., Plutzar, C., Smith, A.B., and Harte, J2016.  Conservation Letters 10:531-538.

Phenotypic distribution models corroborate species distribution models: A shift in the role and prevalence of a dominant prairie grass in response to climate change [article]
Smith, A.B., Alsdurf, J., Knapp, M. and Johnson, L.C.  2017.  Global Change Biology 23:4365-4375.

A systematic assessment of threats affecting the rare plants of the United States [article]
Hernández-Yáñez, H., Kos, J.T., Bast, M.D., Griggs, J.L., Hage, P.A., Killian, A., Whitmore, M.B., Loza, M. L., Smith, A.B.  2016.  Biological Conservation 203:260-267.

Life at the top: Long-term demography, microclimatic refugia, and responses to climate change for a high-elevation southern Appalachian endemic plant [article]
Ulrey, C., Quiantana-Ascencio, P.F., Kauffman, G., Smith, A.B., and Menges, E.S.  2016.  Biological Conservation 200:80-92.

Shifting targets: Spatial priorities for ex situ plant conservation depend on interactions between current threats, climate change, and uncertainty [article]
Smith, A.B., Long, Q.G., and Albrecht, M.A.  2016.  Biodiversity & Conservation 25:905-922.

Delineating probabilistic species pools in ecology and biogeography [open access]
Karger, D.N., Cord, A.F., Kessler, M., Kreft, H., Kühn, I., Pompe, S., Sandel, B., Cabral, J.S., Smith, A.B., Svenning, J-C., Tuomisto, H., Weigelt, P., and Wesche, K.  2016.  Global Ecology & Biogeography 25:489-501.

Evaluation of species distribution models by resampling of sites surveyed a century ago by Joseph Grinnell [article]
Smith, A.B., M.J. Santos, M.S. Koo, K.C. Rowe, K.M.C. Rowe, J.L. Patton, S. Beissinger, and C. Moritz.  2013. Ecography 36:1017-1031.

On evaluating species distribution models with random background sites in place of absences when test presences disproportionately sample suitable habitat [open access]
Smith, A.B.  2013. Diversity & Distributions 19:867-872.

The relative influence of temperature, moisture, and their interaction on range limits of mammals over the past century [article]
Smith, A.B.  2013.  Global Ecology & Biogeography 22:334-343.

Characterizing scale-dependent community assembly using the functional-diversity–area relationship [article]
Smith, A.B., B. Sandel, N. Kraft, and S. Carey.  2013.  Ecology 94:2392-2402.

Anthropogenic refugia ameliorate the severe climate-correlated decline of a montane mammal along its trailing edge [open access]
Morelli, T.L., A.B. Smith, C. Kastely, I. Mastroserio, C. Moritz, and S. Beissinger.  2012.  Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 279:4279-4286.

  • Covered by: Science, Conservation Magazine, Science Daily, Grist, and Futurity.

Approaching a state-shift in Earth’s biosphere [article]
Barnosky, A.D, E.A. Hadly, J. Bascompte, E.L. Berlow, J.H. Brown, M. Fortelius, W.M. Getz, J. Harte, A. Hastings, P.A. Marquet, N.D. Martinez, A. Mooers, P. Roopnarine, G. Vermeij, J.W. Williams, R. Gillespie, J. Kitzes, C. Marshall, N. Matzke, D.P. Mindell, E. Revilla, A.B. Smith.  2012.  Nature 486:52-58.

  • Altmetric: Top 1% of articles of the same age (as of December 2020).
  • Served as basis for Scientific Consensus on Maintaining Humanity’s Life Support Systems in the 21st Century, a policy statement signed by >3400 scientists, presented to the US White House Staff, Secretary of State John Kerry, President Xi Jinping (China), Governor Ichiro Matsui (Osaka, Japan), Energy & Climate Change Minister Gregory Barker, (United Kingdom), Governor Eruviel Avila (Mexico), Right Honourable Datuk Seri Panglima Musa Haji Aman (Minister of Sabah, Malaysia), and others.
  • Served as basis of policy brief requested by Governor Jerry Brown (California).  Served as supporting document for MOU on climate change between China’s National Development and Reform Commission and California.
  • Covered widely in the national and international press, including The New York Times, BBC World News, Los Angeles Times, WIRED, and Bill Moyers; critiqued in Al Jazeera op-ed.
  • Subject of documentary Demain (released as Tomorrow in English) by Mélanie Laurent and Cyril Dion, shown in public theaters and UNFCCC COP21, UNESCO, and other diplomatic venues.
  • Reviewed by Faculty of 1000.
  • Used as basis for Consortium for Mathematics’ 2013 Contest in Modeling.

Caution with curves: Caveats for using the species-area relationship in conservation [article]
Smith, A.B.  2010.  Biological Conservation 143:555-564.

Biodiversity scales from plots to biomes with a universal species-area curve [article]
Harte, J., A.B. Smith, and D. Storch.  2009.  Ecology Letters 12:798-797.

Scale as a lurking factor: Incorporating scale-dependence in experimental ecology [article]
Sandel, B. and A.B. Smith. 2009. Oikos 118:1284-1291.

Maximum entropy and the state variable approach to macroecology [article]
Harte, J., Z.T. Zillo, E. Conlisk, and A.B. Smith.  2008.    Ecology 89:2700-2711.

  • Reviewed by Faculty of 1000 (two recommendations).

The debt of nations and the distribution of ecological impacts from human activities [article]
Srinivasan, U.T., S.P. Carey, E. Hallstein, P.A.T. Higgins, A.C. Kerr, L.E. Koteen, A.B. Smith, R. Watson, J. Harte, and R.B. Norgaard.  2008.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 105:1768-1773.

  • Covered by Nature, The Guardian, and Monga Bay.

A theory of spatial structure in ecological communities at multiple spatial scales [article]
Harte, J., E. Conlisk, A. Ostling, J.L. Green, A.B. Smith.  2005.  Ecological Monographs 75:179-197.

Should we expect population thresholds for wildlife disease? [article]
Lloyd-Smith, J.O., P.C. Cross, C.J. Briggs, M. Daugherty, W.M. Getz, J. Latto, M.S. Sanchez, A.B. Smith, and A. Swei.  2005.  Trends in Ecology & Evolution 20:511-519.