Using 21,000 years of history to predict the next 100

Maps of predictions of the range of Fraxinus pennsylvanica by the best and one of the second-best SDMs from the present to 21 Kybp and to the future

The first time I heard the term “conservation biogeography”, I was with a group of people who all laughed at the seemingly term quizzical term. But, in this latest publication, we show that we can use reconstructions of a species’ range and genetic composition across the past 21,000 years to identify the best model of many candidates… and based on that, have much more confidence in selecting the best model for predicting to the future!

Integrating genomic data and simulations to evaluate alternative species distribution models and improve confidence in predictions of glacial refugia and future responses to climate change [open access]
Naughtin, S., Castilla, A.R., Smith, A.B., Strand, A.E., Dawson, A., Hoban, S., Abhainn, E.A., Romero-Severson, J., and Robinson, J.D. Ecography.